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The difference between baseball and basketball in terms of how often the best team wins


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#1 causerofmoralharm

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 02:39 AM

Using a widely used formula to determine the probability of the outcome of games, which would be the most likely of the following to occur?

A) The 57 win 2015-16 Cavs to defeat the 73 win Warriors in a best of 7?

B ) The Blue Jays to take the next four down three games to none?

C) the 103 win Cubs to lose a best of seven to a 104 loss team?

The answer, at less than five percent is A. B and C are at about 6%, actually slightly over that mark.

Nothing can be done about it, but it goes to show how much of a crapshoot baseball is compared to the NBA.


Hockey is on a whole other level when it comes to parity...

#2 The Macallan

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 04:22 PM

Despite the formula you are using, there is the actual track record to consider. In baseball it’s happened once in 35 chances…2.8%.

 

When talking about two professional team playing at a presumably high level in the playoffs, you cannot assign straight-line probability. The consideration should be that the team up 3-0 did not build that lead by chance. Rather, talent and/or simply playing better baseball in those 10 days or so drives the outcome. 


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#3 causerofmoralharm

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Posted 19 October 2016 - 09:33 PM

Despite the formula you are using, there is the actual track record to consider. In baseball it’s happened once in 35 chances…2.8%.

When talking about two professional team playing at a presumably high level in the playoffs, you cannot assign straight-line probability. The consideration should be that the team up 3-0 did not build that lead by chance. Rather, talent and/or simply playing better baseball in those 10 days or so drives the outcome.

Not so much. 35 series is an incredibly small sample. 2.8% is well within the margin of error.

#4 The Macallan

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Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:53 PM

Ok then, make that 36 series'

 

3e6134e0698824a57cc35c5c4da8539b.jpg

 

 

Small sample relative to what? It's a sample that covers pretty much the entire history of MLB


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#5 causerofmoralharm

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Posted 20 October 2016 - 09:15 PM

Ok then, make that 36 series'

3e6134e0698824a57cc35c5c4da8539b.jpg


Small sample relative to what? It's a sample that covers pretty much the entire history of MLB

It may cover the entire history of baseball but it's still a small sample in terms of statistical significance.

#6 LateRally

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Posted 27 October 2016 - 07:12 PM

Nothing can be done about it, but it goes to show how much of a crapshoot baseball is compared to the NBA.


Hockey is on a whole other level when it comes to parity...

 

This is really interesting. I've read/heard from other people who have reached the same conclusion that some of what accounts for the randomness likely has to do with sports like baseball having a lot more moving parts, for lack of a better description. Essentially the offense and defense/pitching sides of the game are separated, so there are more opportunities where things can go wrong, and for slumps to be more pronounced and/or prolonged.

 

It seems basketball is a more tightly contained environment, at least as far as the play on the court goes, and 1 or 2 superstars can significantly influence the outcome of games.

 

I bet the NFL skews more toward being a crapshoot like baseball.



#7 DarthLen

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Posted 27 October 2016 - 09:53 PM

I know at least one person who thinks all the NFL games are rigged and the super bowls are already pre-ordained to certain cities. Thinks its as fake and scripted as WWF... smh and yes, he's all about the Trump too...



#8 LateRally

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Posted 28 October 2016 - 03:43 PM

Maybe not totally rigged to that extent, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it turned out that Vegas and/or some random organized crime syndicate influenced the outcome of NFL games, at least the low level games no one cares about, given the amount of money at stake every week. For example, anyone who watches Sunday Night Football knows about Al Michaels' tendency to make repeated oblique references to covers, or failures to cover.






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