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#21 Slim

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Posted 18 April 2020 - 02:18 PM

Interesting, thanks Mike. So - I think the important sentence in that one is:

 

 

A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%.

 

 

And I've seen similar suggestions from other sources recently.

 

In the Lombardy region of Italy alone, approximately 12 thousand deaths have been reported as I type, from a population of 10 million.

 

That's 0.12%, which is very consistent with the Stanford study, assuming that a high proportion of the Lombardy population was infected (and bearing in mind that of those infected, not all those who are likely to die have done so yet).



#22 fenderjazz

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Posted 18 April 2020 - 06:04 PM

Well in good news, there is a recent study from Stanford University indicating that the fatality rate could be 50 to 85 times lower than what has been estimated so far.

https://www.medrxiv....2463v1.full.pdf


Given how many people had it and didn’t know. Yes good news. Still where the viral load is high (think NYC subways and medical personnel and first responders) it seems high. Eventually more will be known. It’s just so fluid now and the situation changing rapidly.

#23 Soddy

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Posted 19 April 2020 - 08:08 PM

We are getting by. Daughter is online schooling and husband and I are able to work remotely for the time being. Spirits aren't very high - this all hit not long after my dad died. Haven't really used the time to mourn, or do much of anything else.

 

ETA: Sorry for multiple posts. Refresh isn't working well on my end. I didn't know if my posts were getting through.


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#24 grep

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:51 PM

Well in good news, there is a recent study from Stanford University indicating that the fatality rate could be 50 to 85 times lower than what has been estimated so far.

 

https://www.medrxiv....2463v1.full.pdf


Which is nice. But still this thing is a killer.  Mass graves in NYC, dead bodies being stored in offices. I've seen a few vids and photos of that.  Even if overall rate is low, still there are many people dying from the thing.



#25 DustoftheStars

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 10:45 AM

Hi all, long time no see. I kept meaning to check up the place, but always wind up getting waylaid by FB. Good to be back, good time to browse around here and catch up :) I'm doing well, basically, but my uncle in Brooklyn died of covid last Monday.p
I don't know, but it's been said: You do or don't and then you're dead
So climb away, get higher, son- never straight, just move ahead
Know, my child, that there is no devil seekin' to cause guilt in the hearts to men.
No evil, save blind faith, ignorance, and the desire for the unprepared to blame others for the devastation left in the wake of change.
Fear not the movement of the heavens above or the earth below for change is what we are, my child.
And if we are reflections of the divine we must roll with these changes, for we are these changes.  

 

3eebf325-0d00-4d61-8f78-ecc2e0d4f04a.jpg

 


#26 Slim

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Posted 22 April 2020 - 10:43 PM

Really sad to hear that.



#27 grep

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 11:56 PM

Hi all, long time no see. I kept meaning to check up the place, but always wind up getting waylaid by FB. Good to be back, good time to browse around here and catch up :) I'm doing well, basically, but my uncle in Brooklyn died of covid last Monday.p


I'm sorry to hear that DOTS.



#28 baldiepete

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 08:59 AM

Hi all, long time no see. I kept meaning to check up the place, but always wind up getting waylaid by FB. Good to be back, good time to browse around here and catch up :) I'm doing well, basically, but my uncle in Brooklyn died of covid last Monday.p


 

Such a shame. I’m sorry to hear that. 



#29 Slim

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Posted 27 April 2020 - 08:16 AM

About 34 years ago on a statistics course I was taught how to smooth data using a technique called "moving averages", to show a trend. I'm sure others will be familiar with it. I've been keeping a spreadsheet of the UK reported deaths figure (using Google Sheets, very handy) and the 7-day moving average trend looks like this as of yesterday:

 

trend26apr.png

 

The centre date of the peak is April 10th, which is also the day that saw the highest reported figure (980).



#30 DustoftheStars

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Posted 27 April 2020 - 10:13 PM

Thanks guys. Slim, interesting to see. My son is in London on his Masters work. Are you meaning that averages shift, or shifting them somehow shows a trend more efficiently?


I don't know, but it's been said: You do or don't and then you're dead
So climb away, get higher, son- never straight, just move ahead
Know, my child, that there is no devil seekin' to cause guilt in the hearts to men.
No evil, save blind faith, ignorance, and the desire for the unprepared to blame others for the devastation left in the wake of change.
Fear not the movement of the heavens above or the earth below for change is what we are, my child.
And if we are reflections of the divine we must roll with these changes, for we are these changes.  

 

3eebf325-0d00-4d61-8f78-ecc2e0d4f04a.jpg

 


#31 Slim

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Posted 27 April 2020 - 11:03 PM

This is how it works - currently I have 45 data points, a record of the last 45 days' death figures. I made a new graph where the first figure is the average of the first data points 1-7 from the first graph, the second figure is the average of data points 2-8, the third figure is the average of 3-9 .. and so on. What that does is to smooth out the graph to show the trend.


In this case it's most useful to use a seven-day average because there are differences in the way data is reported at the weekend. So if you take an average of seven consecutive days, each figure in the smoothed graph represents each day of the week equally.

 

This is from my spreadsheet updated with today's figure:

 

 

graphcompare_27apr.png

 

 

.. the top graph is the raw data, a simple graph of the reported figures. The second is (as above) the smoothed data, showing a trend. Quite encouraging.


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#32 Contentment

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 12:29 AM

My state today announced this.  Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, and Colorado are coordinating efforts to help fight Covid-19.  The lin below details the pact.

https://www.governor...-western-states


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#33 DustoftheStars

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 01:48 AM

It helps to have a whole region coordinating. Like the FB meme says, different rules for this is like having a peeing area in a swimming pool.
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I don't know, but it's been said: You do or don't and then you're dead
So climb away, get higher, son- never straight, just move ahead
Know, my child, that there is no devil seekin' to cause guilt in the hearts to men.
No evil, save blind faith, ignorance, and the desire for the unprepared to blame others for the devastation left in the wake of change.
Fear not the movement of the heavens above or the earth below for change is what we are, my child.
And if we are reflections of the divine we must roll with these changes, for we are these changes.  

 

3eebf325-0d00-4d61-8f78-ecc2e0d4f04a.jpg

 


#34 DustoftheStars

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 01:49 AM

It helps to have a whole region coordinating. Like the FB meme says, different rules for this is like having a peeing area in a swimming pool.
I don't know, but it's been said: You do or don't and then you're dead
So climb away, get higher, son- never straight, just move ahead
Know, my child, that there is no devil seekin' to cause guilt in the hearts to men.
No evil, save blind faith, ignorance, and the desire for the unprepared to blame others for the devastation left in the wake of change.
Fear not the movement of the heavens above or the earth below for change is what we are, my child.
And if we are reflections of the divine we must roll with these changes, for we are these changes.  

 

3eebf325-0d00-4d61-8f78-ecc2e0d4f04a.jpg

 


#35 DustoftheStars

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 01:52 AM

Slim, I see how a trend is easier on the eyes, but I think the raw data is more accurate bec it shows that the numbers go up and down.it shows that theres a downward trend, but theres still spikes and valleys. A trend model wld be more assuring to the public though.
I don't know, but it's been said: You do or don't and then you're dead
So climb away, get higher, son- never straight, just move ahead
Know, my child, that there is no devil seekin' to cause guilt in the hearts to men.
No evil, save blind faith, ignorance, and the desire for the unprepared to blame others for the devastation left in the wake of change.
Fear not the movement of the heavens above or the earth below for change is what we are, my child.
And if we are reflections of the divine we must roll with these changes, for we are these changes.  

 

3eebf325-0d00-4d61-8f78-ecc2e0d4f04a.jpg

 


#36 baldiepete

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 08:29 AM

If you look you’ll see many of the dips are regularly spaced. Those will be weekends where less deaths are registered. That doesn’t mean less deaths happen at the weekend but they might not be registered till the start of the week (hence the peak after the dip). This means the dips and peaks are a consequence of the measurement methodology not the actual number of deaths. The rolling seven day average really is a better way to represent the data as it smooths out these peaks to show the underlying trend. 


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#37 Slim

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 08:33 AM

Actually in an important sense, the raw data isn't more accurate because of differences in reporting at the weekend. The figures on the top graph are organised by the days that deaths are reported, not when they happen. The trend graph eliminates inconsistencies caused by different reporting practices for different days of the week as well as smoothing out the general randomness to show a trend.



#38 Contentment

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 06:44 PM

If you look you’ll see many of the dips are regularly spaced. Those will be weekends where less deaths are registered. That doesn’t mean less deaths happen at the weekend but they might not be registered till the start of the week (hence the peak after the dip). This means the dips and peaks are a consequence of the measurement methodology not the actual number of deaths. The rolling seven day average really is a better way to represent the data as it smooths out these peaks to show the underlying trend. 


I have been keeping track of the numbers that Washington State health department puts out.  They have a note along with statistics that the data from the last 4 to 7 days may be incomplete.  It usually is data that occurs during the weekend that makes it incomplete.  Otherwise, the bar chart for positive cases and deaths I can see where in general that the curve is going downhill for the state.


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#39 fenderjazz

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Posted 30 April 2020 - 12:48 PM

Deaths are still high around here in the general NYC-vicinity but that's because there are so many people still hospitalized and clinging to life.  Infections seem to be down even though testing has gone up.  Virtually anyone can get a test here now, depending on your health status.  If you've got none or mild symptoms, they will do the quick test, if you've got severe symptoms or if are positive on the quick test, they will still do the full DNA test.  The main problem with testing is that the full-blown test being done that is most accurate is still on the DNA/RNA level.  There are few tests that are marker-based that involve less time and effort to complete.  This is very much like the beginning of the AIDS crisis in that regard.  There are tests but they take a while to come back and still people are questioning the accuracy.  Obviously this virus is likely in the millions of times more infectious than HIV/AIDS, so ramping up quickly is super important.

 

The PPE problem seems to be largely averted around here since the Army/National Guard has gotten involved.  They land black hawk helicopters all over my city to drop PPE and about 100 medical personnel per hospital shift.  Usually about 10 doctors, 40 med techs and 40 nurses.  The army nurses are all full RNs as well, so this really relieves the hospitals and allows them some shift normalcy.  Prior to this many were working triple 12-hour shifts before going home for 24 hours.  How can you be effective when you've been up that long?

 

As for us here in the suburbs, supply chain issues for food/groceries/PPE are the biggest issues we face.  Essential workers face the most risk of course.  Many are making hazard pay, even bonuses, but that doesn't really help.  My wife who is "essential" given her company is a government contractor actually has cut pay because they are feeling the hardship of this new normal.


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#40 Soddy

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Posted 02 May 2020 - 01:57 AM

One of my clients plans to reopen her salon on the 8th. I don't know if that will happen; the governor may extend the order. The 8th seems optimistic given the news.


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